Is hurricane season over for Texas?

CW39

KIAH

HOUSTON, Texas (KIAH) Since Hurricane Nicholas made landfall in Texas on September 14th, the Gulf of Mexico has been quiet. With one week left in September, nothing seems to be brewing any time soon. So, could Texas be done with tropical storms and hurricanes for the year? It’s feeling like the answer is “probably”, but of course the technically correct answer is “no”.

Why I say probably: There won’t be a tropical storm in the Gulf the rest of this month. Once we reach October, Texas’s odds of a landfalling named storm are very low. How low? Since 1900, only four named storms have hit Texas after September. The upper-atmosphere winds play a big role in that. In the fall, cold fronts start moving in to Texas as upper winds usually blow from the west or northwest. So, even if a storm forms in the Gulf, it usually gets pushed east of Texas.

KIAH

Why I say no: Since 1900, Louisiana has had nearly three times the amount of tropical systems as Texas. Meaning, Texas has had many close calls. That includes last year when hurricanes Delta and Zeta hit Louisiana in October. Also, sea surface temperatures are a little above average for this time of year in the Gulf and Caribbean. Another important thing to keep in mind is that hurricane season officially runs through the end of November, although activity typically drops off significantly after mid-October.

KIAH

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