Tropical Storm Nicholas developed Sunday morning and is set to bring disruptive weather to Texas this week. There is a lot to unpack in terms of advisories and potential scenarios. Let’s begin with the basics.
The National Hurricane Center shows Nicholas strengthening with potential winds up to 65 mph by Tuesday morning. Their forecast cone shows it generally moving northward in the vicinity of the Texas Coast. Beyond Tuesday, the cone expands dramatically due to the uncertain track.
There are also multiple advisories in place due to expected rain, wind and even storm surge.
Much of Southeast Texas, including Houston, is under a flash flood watch as heavy rain will come in waves this week. NOAA suggests upwards of 10-15″ will be possible.
Also, tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for potential tropical storm force winds.
Storm surge watches and warnings are in effect for potential surges up to 2-4 feet.
A reminder, watches are issued to serve as a heads up that certain conditions may be possible, but aren’t imminent just yet. Warnings mean the threat is likely within 36 hours.
Some models take this storm west of Houston, In this case, we would likely see a lot of rain and a higher flash flood threat. If it comes closer to Houston or east of Houston, our wind threat would be higher, but the rain totals would be lower. Stay tuned for updates.