Tropical Update: Tuesday Afternoon

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HOUSTON (CW39) The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of formation for the system in the Bay of Campeche over both the next 48 hours and over the next five days.

IMPORTANT TROPICS HIGHLIGHTS

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: 40% (medium)
  • Formation chance through 5 days: 80% (high)
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

Visible satellite imagery as of 1:15pm this afternoon shows that the system is still disorganized with the majority of convection off to the east. 

Tropical Key Points

  • There is still no immediate threat to Southeast Texas at this time.
  • Confidence has increased that development will occur…but uncertainty remains regarding the track though generally northward. 
  • Slow development of this system is expected over the next couple of days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form near the Bay of Campeche late tomorrow or Thursday. 
  • The speed with which these systems develop can be erratic as well and this is why track forecasting at this stage is very difficult without a center for the computer models to initialize. 
  • Marine impacts with building seas through the end of the week.
  • Ensure your hurricane preparedness plans for the season have been finalized. 
  • We will continue to provide updates each day regarding the development of this potential system. Please reach out to us with any questions or concerns.  
  • The National Hurricane Center provides four updates to the 5-Day Tropical Weather Outlook each day at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM and 7 PM CDT. You can access these updates at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5.

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