Tropics: disturbance to approach the East Coast with minimal concern

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HOUSTONTexas (KIAH) For the first time in several days, there are no names on the tropics map. Sam is now “post tropical” in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Victor also recently fizzled out.

As of Tuesday morning, a disorganized area of rain sits over the southeastern Bahamas, with just a 10% chance of development in the next five days. The National Hurricane Center says upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for significant tropical development while it moves slowly northwestward. By the weekend, the system is forecast to interact with a front near the coast of the southeastern U.S.

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Multiple models show this area of low pressure near the East Coast this weekend. The above image is the Euro model, indicating some rain, but likely not an organized tropical system.

KIAH

Historically, the Atlantic remains fairly active through mid-October, with activity falling off significantly by Halloween. Hurricane season officially lasts through the end of Novemeber.

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