Tropics: Sam develops, remains quiet near the U.S.

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KIAH

HOUSTON, Texas (KIAH) The 18th named storm of the Atlantic season formed Thursday morning, known as Tropical Storm Sam. We’re definitely ahead of pace. In fact, the 30-year average of number of Atlantic named storms per year is 14, and we still have two more months of hurricane season ahead of us.

KIAH

Sam is expected to become a major hurricane early next week. If it does, it’ll be the fourth major Atlantic hurricane this year. The NHC track, along with some computer models, suggest a northward turn as it nears the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean Sea.

KIAH

So is Texas done with hurricanes this year? The answer: probably. We can say with pretty high certainty that the next 7-10 days appear quiet in the Gulf. Beyond that, we’re in October. Since 1900, only four named storms have hit Texas in October, none have hit Texas in November and December. That historical context alone means our odds are pretty low. However, many hurricanes have formed in the Gulf in October, including Delta and Zeta in Louisiana last year, so don’t totally let your guard down just yet.

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