HOUSTON, Texas (KIAH) The Wednesday morning update from the National Hurricane Center now indicates a high likelihood of development of a tropical wave (disorganized low) in the Caribbean Sea. The 7 a.m. update ups the odds to 80%.
It’s heading west and is expected to eventually make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Beyond that point, the situation remains highly uncertain, mainly because this system hasn’t organized yet. Until that happens, models will naturally struggle without a solid initiation point for the storm.
I’ll show you two model runs below, but keep in mind, the forecast will be changing, and plans should not be made based on individual model runs this far out. If you’ve been paying attention this week, you’ll notice a significant shift in what the models are showing. That’s no surprise, and I expect to see more shifts in the next day or two.