HOUSTON (CW39) BREAKING: Tropical depression 9 forms – Here is the information just in from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA says tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and wester Cuba Friday and Friday night.
Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of youth, in areas of onshore flow.
NOAA adds that the system is expected to produce life threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mud slides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of youth and northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The system is forecast or approached the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday. Although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Everyone in these vicinities, should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place .
7AM – As we start this Thursday morning, we have new information on the developing storm in the Caribbean. First, it’s very likely to become an official tropical depression or tropical storm within 24 hours. It also probably will reach hurricane strength in the Gulf.
Thursday afternoon, the hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the storm and collect data that will be very useful in determining where the storm will be going.
New info Thursday morning:
As seen above, models are shifting to the east. However, without a clear center of circulation, the track is still highly uncertain. Also, models have sped it up, suggesting U.S. landfall could occur as soon as Sunday, or Monday at the latest.
If you’re wondering what a few individual models look like, below is a comparison of the main American and European models. These are handy when the storm is several days out. Over the next few days, more high-resolution models will become useful as many of those can only forecast for the next two to three days.