The most significant impacts could potentially occur Wednesday through early Thursday, with possible landfall near Tampa or Fort Meyers Wednesday afternoon.
There are many weather computer models to look at. The images below are a comparison of some of the most reliable models, showing a forecast snapshot at 1 p.m. on Wednesday.
Tuesday morning’s model runs have shown a slight shift to the south, which means the storm surge wouldn’t be quite as extreme in Tampa Bay, but still possibly devastating for a large part of the coast, especially near and south of the eye. The National Hurricane Center‘s storm surge forecast says the highest surge of 8-12 feet could be from Middle of Longboat Key (just south of Tampa Bay), to Bonita Beach (just south of Fort Myers).