HOUSTON (KIAH) — An Atlantic storm now looks more likely to organize, according to Wednesday morning’s new outlook from the National Hurricane Center. The broad area of low pressure has a 70% chance of formation within the next two to five days while heading westward.

National Hurricane Center’s 5-day tropical outlook

Odds of a late-season hurricane near Houston, and the next tropical system we’re watching

The known:
According to the National Hurricane Center, “although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression. The system is forecast to move generally westward over the tropical Atlantic during the next day or so, and move near of over portions of the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday night. Regardless of development, the system is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands Friday through Saturday”.

Computer models’ forecast tracks of the area of low pressure through Sunday

The unknown:
I’ve said many times before that computer models are often highly inaccurate beyond 6 to 7 days. It’s just the nature of computing a solution based on many assumptions that get exponentially inaccurate over time. The image above shows pretty good agreement on where the storm will be by Sunday. Beyond that, it’s impossible to specific. But, I will say that it is plausible for this storm to impact the U.S. We’re seeing long-term hints that the atmosphere will be set up to turn this storm northward. If that happens, it’s not until next week, meaning there is a lot of time to sort this one out. It’s also very difficult to accurately predict a storm that hasn’t fully organized yet.

The bottom line:
For now, this storm is worth watching, but not worth fretting over. Keep up to date with us and other trusted sources, like the National Hurricane Center, for the next week.