HOUSTON (KIAH) — A tropical wave, or elongated area of low pressure, is nearing the Caribbean Sea and has high potential to organize into a tropical storm. The latest computer models show a wide range of possibilities next week, but one of those possibilities is a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 98L forecast tracks

This system, for now, is labeled “Invest 98L” by the National Hurricane Center. Within the next few days, it could become an official tropical depression or tropical storm. The next name on the list is Hermine. Conditions in the Caribbean are very favorable for this storm to organize due to very little wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures.

In the image above, the lines that look like spaghetti represent a variety of forecast tracks from different computer models through 1p.m. Monday. I’ve also highlighted an area that I think is the storm’s most likely path beyond Monday. Keep in mind, this is subject to change because it is far in the future, and the storm hasn’t formed yet.

Aside from Invest 98L, we’re also watching major hurricane Fiona, which is now north of Turks and Caicos Wednesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

Hurricane Fiona forecast track

Hurricane Fiona could bring tropical storm force winds to Bermuda, where a tropical storm watch is in effect.

Hurricane Fiona forecast track

This weekend, what’s left of Fiona will bring strong winds to East Canada.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the newest named storm, Tropical Storm Gaston, is in the North Atlantic. We also see several other disturbances marked for potential development, including two near Mexico and two near Africa. For now, those are not much of a concern.

Tropics overview