HOUSTON (KIAH) — An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is sending waves of scattered thunderstorms into Southeast Texas Wednesday. However, more significant rain very well could be coming Thursday and Friday as the Gulf low potentially reaches tropical depression status.

CW39 – tracking a Gulf low

A reminder of how tropical weather terminology works: a tropical cyclone’s status is determined based on winds. A tropical depression means winds are expected to be 38 mph or lower. So, this system is not a wind concern. However, even weak tropical cyclones can produce very significant rain.

CW39 – average rain totals over the next five days

In general, the highest rain totals will be closer to the coast with potential for minor flooding. NOAA suggests three to five inches on average, with some areas potentially getting more.

Computer models are still showing a range of possible tracks for this low, but arrival somewhere along the middle Texas Coast looks pretty likely, meaning Greater Houston would be on the right side (wet side) of this low. Latest high-resolution models suggest the timing of the heaviest could be pushed a little later to Thursday night and into Friday. Keep checking back as the fine details of our forecast are subject to change.

CW39 Houston 7-day forecast

Regardless of how this Gulf low plays out, we’re fairly certain that rain gradually exits Saturday, leaving us mainly dry (other than isolated sea-breeze showers) Sunday and Monday for the 4th of July.