HOUSTON (KIAH) — An area of low pressure continues to swirl over the Gulf of Mexico, and is now heading northward towards the middle and upper Texas Coast. As it nears, waves of thunderstorms will sweep across Southeast Texas Thursday.

CW39 – forecast rain totals

The heaviest and most widespread rain will likely arrive late Thursday night and Friday morning. We’re also seeing a little more consistency from computer models as to where the rain bulls-eye will occur, expected to be near Houston, but more so south and east of Houston, including Galveston. As seen in the forecast rain total image above, there could be a sharp cutoff between areas getting one inch or less and areas getting several inches. Therefore, any slight shift in the track of this low could greatly impact the forecast for parts of Greater Houston.

CW39 Houston 7-day forecast

Another recent adjustment to the forecast: I’ve increased the rain chance on Saturday as scattered showers and thunderstorms look more likely, mainly in the afternoon. And, unlike Thursday and Friday, our northern areas could get in on some of this rain Saturday.

Isolated rain is possible Sunday and beyond, meaning most areas will likely be dry for 4th of July celebrations.