Pamela expected to become a major hurricane prior to landfall over western Mexico

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Pamela expected to become a major hurricane prior to landfall over western Mexico Tropical Storm Pamela continues to intensify over the eastern Pacific as it moves to the north-northwest around 8 mph. Pamela is expected to further intensify and become a hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph) by Tuesday morning. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Pamela should quickly become a major Category 3 hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph) late Tuesday or Tuesday night as it begins to curve to the northeast towards the Mexican coast, just south of the southern Baha Peninsula. Stronger vertical wind shear and interaction with land may cause Pamela to lose some wind intensity prior to landfall Wednesday over Sinaloa.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches are expected from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night for portions of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Durango from Pamela. Rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches are expected in the higher terrain in those states with an AccuWeather Local StormMax sloped higher terrain. This will pose a significant threat to lives and property. Travel will be impacted with major delays likely. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will bring flooding concerns to areas from northern Mexico into central Texas. Higher amounts of 4-8 inches can occur near the track of Pamela over Texas later Wednesday night into Friday, leading to flooding across the state. The greatest risk for flooding will likely occur across the Texas Hill Country, potentially washing out roadways and posing a high risk to life and property.

Powerful winds are expected to spread across portions of Sinaloa and Durango along the path of Pamela from Wednesday into Wednesday night. The strongest winds will occur along the coast where the storm moves ashore, and here wind gusts of 100-120 mph are expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax reinforced to protect against hurricanes. Downed trees and power lines will make travel difficult with extensive delays expected. Power outages may last several weeks in the hardest-hit areas. After landfall, Pamela is expected to lose wind intensity quickly. Thus, extreme wind damage is not expected to spread far inland.

Based on the expected wind and flooding rainfall, Pamela will be a 3 on the AccuWeather Real

Impact Western Pacific: Kompasu and Namtheun in the West Pacific

As of Monday evening, EDT, severe Tropical Storm Kompasu, as designated by the Japan Meteorological Agency and also known as Maring in the Philippines, is moving toward the west over the South China Sea, pulling away from northern Luzon, Philippines. The storm’s rains and winds are fading in the northern Philippines as well as Taiwan now that Kompasu is tracking steadily westward.

Kompasu may strengthen slightly as it tracks across the northern South China Sea and could become a marginal typhoon over the next day or so before making landfall on Hainan. Strong winds and heavy rains from Kompasu will reach southern mainland China and Hainan Island beginning late Tuesday, local time, and northern Vietnam beginning Wednesday afternoon. A landfall on north-central Vietnam is likely on Thursday, local time.

Tropical Storm Namtheun is east-northeast of the Mariana Islands. This storm is now forecast to remain a tropical storm as it veers to the north and northeast over open water, which should keep the storm east of major landmasses.

Southern Pacific: No new information for this time period.

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