HOUSTON (KIAH) — Messy weather is coming to Texas on Thanksgiving. Unlike recent rain, this time around will be more intense with potential for multiple inches of rain, and perhaps even some severe storms that could produce hail and/or strong winds.

Timing:
As of now (Tuesday morning), our high-resolution model shows storms over our far northwestern areas Thursday morning, with gradual progression eastward into Houston by Thursday afternoon and evening.

Futurecast Thursday at 5 p.m.

Rain totals:
With potential for slow movement of this system, moderate to heavy rain may persist for multiple hours in some areas, especially north of I-10. NOAA’s 5-day rain outlook suggests average rain totals of 2-3″ near and north of Houston, with 1-2″ totals south and southwest.

NOAA’s 5-day rain outlook

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center highlights a large area from Greater Houston and areas north, east and southeast for potential heavy rain where minor flooding could occur.

NOAA’s excessive rain outlook Thursday

Severe weather risk:
As it warms on Thanksgiving, increased instability in the atmosphere means some of the storms may be severe. There could be a few that produce 1″ hail and wind gusts that could reach 60 mph. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center highlights Greater Houston and areas south in a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather.

NOAA’s severe weather outlook Thursday

After widespread rain Thursday, scattered rain lingers Friday before we dry out for the weekend.

Houston 7-day forecast