Southeast Texas is on the far southern end of a rare-for-November severe weather outbreak setup. The Storm Prediction Center suggests there could be multiple tornadoes, very large hail and damaging straight-line winds. The highest severe weather risk (moderate, or level 4 out of 5) is centered over Mississippi. Surrounding states, including Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama, also see a significant severe weather risk.
Looking specifically at the tornado probability in the image below, the percentages represent the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point.
Houston’s tornado risk is nearly zero as there is a 2% chance (green) east of I-45. Parts of East Texas and much of Louisiana have a 5% chance (brown). There is a significant 10% to 15% risk (yellow and red, respectively) near the Mississippi River Valley. The hatched area (black dashed lines) represents where strong tornadoes of EF2 to EF5 intensity may occur.
You can track the storms using our interactive radar tool.