HOUSTON (KIAH) — A tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean has our attention as it is bound for the Caribbean. From there, it’s plausible that it could end up in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropics outlook

The National Hurricane Center has marked the tropical wave (orange ‘X’ in the image above) as having a medium chance of organizing within the next five days. Beyond that, it appears increasingly likely to become a named storm because the conditions in the Caribbean are favorable for tropical formation. Sea surface temperatures are warm, and there will likely be very little wind shear.

Tropics forecast Monday

Jumping ahead to Monday of next week, models seem to be in good agreement that this system continues westward through the Caribbean Sea. In the image above, the GFS model shows this low just south of Cuba. I went ahead and highlighted a broad area in red to indicate a wide range of possible locations of the low based on a variety of computer models.

Next week, it’s plausible that this system ends up somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is too soon to know for sure where it will be, and how well organized it will be. As for Texas, history is on our side to keep odds of a Texas landfall relatively low. That’s because, in the fall, the weather pattern across the U.S. shifts, and tends to steer these Gulf storms east of Texas. Stick with us as we’ll be watching it for several days.