HOUSTON (KIAH) — The Atlantic hurricane season is less than three weeks away, and at least one long-range model hints at some sort of tropical development. However, you should beware what you see on social media as some forecast images will be irresponsibly posted by, what I call, “social media-orologists”.

CW39 – GFS model Saturday, May 21

The image above is the scenario I’m referring to. The primary long-range model created by the U.S., known as the GFS model, is built to forecast 16 days in advance. The problem is that models can be wildly inaccurate beyond 7 or 8 days.

What we know: it’s possible that we’ll see some sort of thunderstorm development in the Caribbean Sea around one week from now. That’s what bears watching.

Some social media posts have been circling showing a tropical cyclone coming together in the Gulf of Mexico. Don’t worry! It’s way too early to take that scenario seriously.


What you should do in the meantime is follow trusted sources, like us, or the National Hurricane Center.