Tropical Storm Nicholas UPDATE | National Weather Service for Houston/Galveston

No Wait Weather

HOUSTONTexas (KIAH) The Storm has winds near 60 mph centered southeast of Brownsville and has gotten better organized and was wobbling about but should resume a northward track and should continue to strengthen through the day. The track brings it into the Matagorda Bay region this evening most likely with winds near 70 mph – only slightly more strengthening would push it up into a Category 1 Hurricane.

MAIN CONCERNS

  • A Flash Flood Watch has expanded north…now Bellville to Conroe to Cleveland southward.
  • Storm surge 2-5 feet.
  • Storm arrival time has sped up after redevelopment further north overnight.

Tropical storm Nicholas Overview

The Storm has winds near 60 mph centered southeast of Brownsville and has gotten better organized and was wobbling about but should resume a northward track and should continue to strengthen through the day. The track brings it into the Matagorda Bay region this evening most likely with winds near 70 mph – only slightly more strengthening would push it up into a Category 1 Hurricane.

The system should then track northeastward toward the Houston Metro/Montgomery County region around Tuesday midday then toward the Lake Livingston area in the afternoon. Current projections push it out of the area by Wednesday sunrise. With these strong winds increasing throughout the day and into the evening with landfall will come building seas and rising tides. Storm surge will be on the increase through early Tuesday morning then should slowly subside. Beach erosion, coastal flooding, impacts to commonly flooded areas is likely, in addition strong incoming and outgoing tidal currents as well as very strong rip currents.

A major impact expected is the flooding. Rainfall rates of 3-4″/hour are likely as bands of rain move into the area and possibly set up over one area for multiple hours mainly south of the I-10 corridor. Street flooding will become more likely as the storm nears the coast and worsen overnight with increased runoff causing rising waters in the bayou system and rivers. A second and lower probability impact is a few weak tornadoes primarily tonight with landfall.

Conditions should be improving Wednesday across the region though some mainstem rivers will still likely be rising in response to the heavy rainfall.

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