HOUSTON (KIAH) – An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to organize before reaching South Texas Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center suggests this low could become a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm. Tropical storm watches and warnings may be issued in South Texas at some point Monday.

Tropical depression vs tropical storm:
The difference between a tropical depression and tropical storm has to do with the intensity of the wind. A depression has maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. A tropical storm has maximum sustained winds between 39 mph and 73 mph.

Low pressure likely to organize in the Gulf of Mexico

Ahead of this, Monday will be very hot again in the Greater Houston area with heat advisories and excessive heat warnings in effect.

Heat alerts Monday

As the low passes to our south, our winds will pick up Monday, and increase even more Tuesday. This, along with dry air in the afternoon and dry ground, brings an elevated risk for wildfires.

Fire weather alerts Monday

Unfortunately, Houston’s rain chance is low. Widespread downpours will miss to the south. A large part of South Texas could see two to four inches of rain. We’re calling for a 30% rain chance in Greater Houston Tuesday as a few outer bands of spotty showers and storms may pass through.

Forecast rain totals
Futurecast Tuesday morning

This potential tropical storm should help limit our heat a bit on Tuesday. We could finally see a day with a high below 100, then it’s right back to 100s the rest of the week.

Houston 7-day forecast