What goes into a river flood forecast? Trinity River update

No Wait Weather

HOUSTON (CW39) – River flooding occurs when river levels rise and overflow their banks or the edges of their main channel and inundate areas that are normally dry.   

What goes into a river flood forecast? 

  • The amount of rainfall occurring on a real-time basis. 
  • The rate of change in river stage on a real-time basis, which can help indicate the severity and immediacy of the threat. 
  • Knowledge about the type of rain system producing the moisture, such as duration, intensity and areal extent  
  • Knowledge about the characteristics of a river’s drainage basin, such as soil-moisture conditions, topography, vegetation cover, and impermeable land area, which can help to predict how extensive and damaging a flood might become. 

The Trinity River at Liberty has been steadily sitting at near 29 feet, putting it at major flood stage. This morning’s reading put it just shy of 29 feet, but still at a moderate, and still near major, stage.

According to NOAA, at 29 feet: Major lowland flooding begins as homes in several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive flooding over much of Liberty County can be expected with each incremental rise in the river. 

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